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(gentle electronic music)
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Global trade is at a turning point.
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The system that powered growth for decades
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and lifted millions out of poverty
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is showing signs of strain.
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We're seeing institutions under pressure,
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supply chains fragmenting, and protectionism on the rise.
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To help us think through how the business community
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is approaching these issues,
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we are joined by the chair of the Trade
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and Investment Task Force for the B20,
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Ms. Busi Mabuza.
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In terms of the task force that you chaired,
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what is the reach and scale of that task force?
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Trudi, it's been such an enormous privilege and honor
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to be part of this very historic G20,
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B20 presidency
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where we see the G20 nations having to come
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to the African continent hosted by South Africa
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for the very first time.
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The task force had fantastic representation
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from all G20 nations.
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In fact, we had 35 countries represented in our task force,
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200-odd task force members.
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And this is after this year's B20 Secretariat
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had to scale down because there was such enormous demand.
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We have a fantastic panel
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of co-chairs drawn from corporates, global corporates,
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as well as significant institutions
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across the trade and investment value chain.
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If I may just name a few,
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I'm very proud that we have the FirstRand CEO
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from here in South Africa, who is, of course, a woman.
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We have AUDA-NEPAD represented.
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We have Afreximbank.
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The African Continental Free Trade Area Secretariat
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is represented at the highest level.
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Beyond our borders or the continental borders,
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we, of course, have DP World
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and various other corporates
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and institutions as part of our co-chair panel.
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Most pleasing, however,
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is that we had co-chairs that have been
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with the trade and investment task force in prior years, therefore enabling...
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especially from Brazil, we had Embraer represented,
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therefore enabling fantastic continuity
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from previous cycles
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of the B20.
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Of course, this has been quite a challenging time
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because of what is happening geopolitically
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and the impact on the economy.
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However, I'm pleased
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that everybody showed up looking for solutions,
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and this, I believe, has come through very strongly
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through our policy recommendations.
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Absolutely, and we also had representation
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from Anglo American, business at OECD.
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The Indian delegation was well represented by FICCI,
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China Merchants Group,
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so really quite an important range of people.
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Now, the policy paper argues
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that the global trading system needs
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to be stabilized and reimagined.
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What is the ambition behind this agenda?
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Trudi, there's no doubt in my mind that trade
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is a critical engine for growth,
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and economic growth lifts nations
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out of poverty.
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With the African continent being where it is
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in terms of the development curve,
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it is important that we go back
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to the knitting
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and ensure that the trade environment is stable,
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conducive for business to plan long term
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to invest in anticipation of having trade.
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So it's been very unfortunate that in this season
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of the G20 presidency,
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we started seeing unilateral tariff measures
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being imposed on countries, countermeasures being imposed.
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When we were hoping for a rollback of non-tariff barriers,
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we started seeing those actually going the wrong direction.
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So the task force is calling
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on our G20 governments
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to ensure that the trade environment is stable
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and predictable because in that instance,
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then business will be able to plan and invest,
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and we'll see the growth that we need for the future.
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And in terms of how we propose to achieve these ambitions,
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maybe let's bring it, you know, to the continent.
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What kinds of proposals have you made in that regard?
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So, Trudi, let me start...
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we have three recommendations as I've indicated.
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The first one is a call for all G20 nations
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to ensure a stable trade environment.
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And in this regard,
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we believe that the World Trade Organization
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remains a very important institution
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and that bottlenecks
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such as the dispute settlement mechanism,
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which has paralyzed WTO functionality,
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needs to be addressed.
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We need to roll back the tariff measures
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that we've seen coming out of various nations,
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and we, of course, need to address the non-tariff barriers
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that we see.
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Addressing these issues is not just about us as a country
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or in a continent trading with the rest of the world.
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It's also about us trading
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within the African continent.
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And therefore, our second recommendation calls
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for a new trade and investment deal for Africa.
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In this regard, we recognize that
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since the inception of the AfCFTA,
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fantastic groundwork has been done in putting together,
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especially through the Secretariat.
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And we also recognize that a number of the G20 nations
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and other nations have initiatives
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that seek to help promote investment
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and therefore support competitive trade
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in the African continent
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and between the African continent and other nations.
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However, we believe
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that these initiatives may be too fragmented.
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With the African Continental Free Trade Area Secretariat
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now in place and functional,
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we are calling for the G20 nations
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to consolidate all the initiatives
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under the umbrella of the Secretariat.
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We believe that this will put tailwinds
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behind all the initiatives that have been put in place
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in a manner that will ensure that we unlock investment,
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we innovate around financing
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that will create an environment
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that is conducive to competitive trade
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from the African continent
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and, of course, to help foster trade
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with intratrade.
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We need, if this continent is to go anywhere,
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to move from the current 16, 17%
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of intra-Africa continental trade
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to the high 50, 60%
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that is achieved by many other integrated regions.
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And we believe that the policy framework is now in place
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to help foster this.
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The final recommendation is, of course, recognizing
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that climate change cannot be ignored because, otherwise,
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pushing for trade
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for the sake of trade will harm the environment
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and therefore reverse
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whatever sustainable initiatives
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have already been put in place for trade.
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We also recognize the fact that trade does add
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to carbon emissions quite significantly.
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However, we're saying that the response
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to the climate impact of trade
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should not leave any nation behind.
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We need to make sure
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that the carbon border adjustment mechanisms
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that are put in place are interoperable,
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that they can be easily adopted
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by even the least developed nations,
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and that they do not block trade opportunities
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for those developing nations.
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And finally, of course, we'll have the solution
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for support for the developing nations
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to transition to cleaner
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climate manufacturing activity.
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I mean, this is such an exciting agenda,
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but we have co-chairs, you know,
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like Mpumi Madisa from Bidvest,
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Duncan Wanblad from Anglo American,
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who often really push on the implementation part of things
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to say, "How does this vision translate into action?"
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So let me pose that to you.
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And that's been one of the most exciting parts
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of our work,
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of course, under very good leadership
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and support from BCG.
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The fact that we have business leaders as co-chair
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who are at the core phase
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of not just production, but also of trade,
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has helped us ensure that our recommendations
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are practical and implementable.
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And as you correctly point out,
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the co-chairs have repeatedly tested
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whether the action items
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and the KPIs that we're putting in place are actionable.
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Can they be realized within a reasonable space of time?
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And I believe that our knowledge partner
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has done a fantastic job
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in ensuring that each recommendation
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and each KPI is actually allocated
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to an institution that is supportive
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to the initiatives and the recommendations
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and that can actually rally G20 nations
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in ensuring that those KPIs are met.
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So that has been an absolutely important requirement
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and criteria for the recommendations that we've made.
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Thank you so much for that.
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I think action is always important if we're going
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to move forward.
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Now the B20 Summit is approaching.
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What message or messages would you like
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to give to business leaders as we take this agenda forward?
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The African continent is undoubtedly
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the next bastion
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for global growth.
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And, Trudi, I'm saying this not just because
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of where most of the countries
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in the continent are on the development curve,
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but because the majority
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of the young population
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in the world is now in the African continent.
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It's estimated that by 2050,
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half of the youth in the world
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will be coming from this African continent.
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These are not just consumers.
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They are the innovators.
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They are going to be the future entrepreneurs,
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and they are going to be the people
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that are going to be driving innovation,
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manufacturing, trade with the continent.
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We've seen those kind of waves go
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through the Asian countries,
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and I believe that it's inevitable
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that the African continent is going
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to start showing the potential
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for being the engine for global growth going forward.
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So we are saying to our government,
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please ensure that the environment
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is conducive for global trade.
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We need to invest in this continent.
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The opportunity is there.
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We need to make sure
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that the policy framework is supportive,
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and we need to then catalyze trade within the continent
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and beyond the continent.
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And by ensuring that the policy environment
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is supportive to that,
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we will have made sure that the legacy
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of hosting G20 nations for the very first time
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on the African continent is realized
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and has impact
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that will outlast many of us.
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Thank you so much for that strong message of an impact
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that lives beyond our hosting of the B20 and G20
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and hopefully for generations to come.
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Ms. Busi Mabuza, thank you so much for your time.
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Thank you, Trudi.
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(gentle electronic music)