WEBVTT

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I'm at the World Economic Forum in Davos,

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and trade is a backdrop
of so many conversations.

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So let's unpack what's
going on with global trade.

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We just published a report about that

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that I would highly recommend.

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How do you go about
studying trade when there is

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so much volatility?

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Well, you have to think in scenarios,

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and that's what our team did.

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We thought of a range of scenarios

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of what the end game on
trade could look like.

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We believe the momentum scenario is called

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a multinodal patchwork.

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In this scenario, we do not
see a collapse in global trade.

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We see a shift in trade lanes.

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In that scenario, global trade
remains remarkably resilient,

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growing at about two-and-a-half percent,

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slightly ahead of global GDP.

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However, who trades with
who changes rapidly.

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The key actors in this
scenario is US, disrupting,

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China, pivoting, and the
plurilateralists, stabilizing.

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The plurilateralists
are quite interesting.

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It's a heterogeneous group of
countries including the EU,

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Japan, Korea, even emerging markets

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like Mexico, Chile, and Vietnam.

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And they are upholding
a rules-based order,

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removing themselves from dependence

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on trade with both US and China,

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and trading more with each
other and the rest of the world;

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and it's a key factor to
stabilize global trade.

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In this scenario, there are key areas

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where global trade will grow rapidly.

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First, China's trade with
the rest of the BRICS.

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Second, China's trade with
the rest of the world.

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Third, plurilateralists'
trade with each other.

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The good news is that
we will see continued

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resilience in global trade.

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If you want to find out more about that,

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do check out our report.

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Thank you.

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(gentle music)