WEBVTT

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<v ->I am here in London's historic Docklands,</v>

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which, for centuries, epitomized the UK's place

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at the heart of the global trading system.

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UK global trade growth is projected to rise

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by just 0.7% a year over the next ten years,

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way behind the global average of 2.9%.

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And more worryingly, this growth is around half

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the level of projected GDP growth in the UK economy,

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showing that trade is making a decreasing contribution.

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While Brexit and post-Brexit trade barriers

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are playing their part in this decline,

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our data shows that the challenges go beyond that.

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Trade with key UK trading partners,

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such as China and Japan, is projected to stagnate,

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and trade with China will actually decline.

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This means while resetting the UK's trading relationship

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with the European Union, still by far and away

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the UK's largest trading partner, will be critical.

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The UK also needs to understand and address the challenges

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holding back wider trade growth.

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For the European Union, external trade growth of 2%

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will outpace GDP growth, which is at around 1.4%,

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but still, significant challenges will arise,

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particularly in relation to EU-China trade,

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which we're projecting to stagnate after years of growth.

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This underlines the challenges faced

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by the EU's traditional export-orientated economic model.

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Developing new trading relationships with emerging markets,

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such as on the back of the recently signed

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free trade agreements with MERCOSUR countries

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will be critical, as will deepening the EU's internal market--as recently recommended in Mario Draghi's report

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on the future of EU competitiveness.

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Our projections are a wake-up call

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for policy makers and business leaders.

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Geopolitics will play an increasing role

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in global trade in coming years,

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and businesses who adapt and respond

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are the ones who will thrive.

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(gentle music)