WEBVTT

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Imagine a world in which COVID-19

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has been controlled through treatment and vaccination.

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Life has returned to cities, resorts, and athletic events,

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but this triumph of medicine has not been matched

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by national governments.

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Protectionism and nationalism generate sluggish growth,

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and the rise of new, more regional trading patterns.

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The shrinking of globalization hurts emerging markets.

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We call this the NEAR MISS scenario,

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one of four contrasting versions of reality

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we might have to operate in.

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These scenarios are meant to stretch your mind

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in four different directions,

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to help you look beyond the short-term crisis

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and envision what's possible.

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Now, imagine that an effective treatment

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or vaccine does not emerge quickly.

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Government action is even more ineffective

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than under NEAR MISS.

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The world becomes more fractured and localized.

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Trade and economic activity is way down.

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Anger at governments is up.

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People are leaving cities and hunkering down.

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We call this PROTRACTED TURMOIL.

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Imagine another alternate future.

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The health crisis persists, but the world comes together

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in a blossom of digital innovation, cooperation,

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and social responsibility.

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Governments invest heavily in health and digital platforms.

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Incumbents unable to adapt, suffer.

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Entrepreneurship flourishes.

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This is the world of STAMINA AND COOPERATION

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In the final scenario, the private and public sectors

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work together to produce an effective vaccine.

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With the economy bouncing back,

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this new-found cooperative spirit

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expands into climate and racial justice.

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We call this TOP-DOWN PROSPERITY,

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because the rewards favor the rich and digital

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rather than small businesses and less-skilled workers.

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You can see elements of each scenario playing out today,

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the protectionism of NEAR MISS,

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the anger of PROTRACTED TURMOIL,

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the digital developments of STAMINA AND COOPERATION,

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and the rising income inequality of TOP-DOWN PROSPERITY.

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Together, these four scenarios enable executives

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and officials to think through

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the infinite potential possibilities before us.

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Under PROTRACTED TURMOIL, for example,

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food and beverage companies would need to create

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more local supply chains in a balkanized world.

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In STAMINA AND COOPERATION,

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direct-to-consumer companies and digital players

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would benefit from a stay-at-home world.

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In every scenario, in every industry,

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there will be winners and losers,

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and preparing now improves your odds.

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Companies should be thinking through no-regret moves,

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a handful of trends to monitor, and big bets to consider.

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The unpredictability of the future

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is not an excuse to avoid preparing for it.