The world is an increasingly volatile place. And BCG's Global
Trade Report tries to give a perspective of how the world
economy, and particularly trade, is evolving over the next decade.
There are countries and regions that will clearly grow, while
others have a more uncertain future.
When we look particularly at the Global South, we see growth.
China will do a pivot, pivoting away from the Western trading partners
towards partners in the Global South and in Russia.
To be more concrete, we predict $200
billion less trade with the West and more than $200 billion more
trade with Russia and more than $1 trillion additional trade
with the Global South.
And then there is North America, traditionally a very close-knit
trading bloc, but of course today with a question mark,
given the recent announcement of the new administration.
Europe will need to focus on energy resilience, critical minerals,
and also on the competitiveness of its industry.
So you see the variety of tendencies, and that's why we
believe at BCG that companies need to develop their
geopolitical muscle, which is the ability to interpret
geopolitical development, to project them into scenarios,
and to integrate them in your strategic decision making.
It means that you need to really think around where are your
supply chains of the future, where do you establish your
geopolitical radar, and how do you collaborate with governments
and countries around the world.
In this world, geopolitical resilience is not an optionality, it's a must.