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<v ->Aparna Bharadwaj is the Global Trade Chair at BCG.</v>

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Aparna, lovely to see you.

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Yes, it definitely was volatile.

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But what is really interesting,

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and despite all the angst that I see,

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especially transpacific,

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when I look at the actual trade flows

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and the actual number of American and Chinese companies

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trading that pair, it's enormous

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and hasn't gone down at all.

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The trade has been fairly consistent

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despite the rhetoric from the politicians.

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<v ->Absolutely, and I think that is the linchpin</v>

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of our argument.

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When Liberation Day happened, we set a series of scenarios,

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and there was one tough scenario,

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which was basically a contagion scenario

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that if US puts tariffs on the world,

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the world will retaliate.

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The good news is that scenario didn't happen,

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and that is the biggest reason

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why trade has remained resilient.

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We expect it to grow for the next ten years at about 2.5%,

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slightly above global GDP.

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<v ->And Aparna, this is really important</v>

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because there are certain areas

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where there is no doubt going to be more protectionism.

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There is no doubt going to be more green shoring, home

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shoring, reshoring, friend shoring.

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I lose track of how many shorings there are,

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but by and large, most products are still going to continue

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to be traded on a global basis

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rather than on a closer to home, regional basis.

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That's right, yeah?

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<v ->Absolutely, we do see a lot of resilience</v>

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in global supply chains, and there's a few reasons for that.

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First of all, if you step back

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and say, "How much of global imports is the US?"

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It's about 16.5%.

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There's another 84% of global trade

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that happens between other countries in the world,

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and amongst those nations,

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we have seen a block, a hydrogenous block, emerge,

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which we are calling in our report, the plurilaterists.

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Now, this includes the 27 nations of the European Union,

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includes Japan, Korea, Mexico, Peru,

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and some emerging markets,

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and these nations are still following rules-based trade.

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They are still trading actively with each other

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and that's one reason why we see

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this kind of a resilience in global trade.